Jamal Fuad,
Ph.D., Retiree, FAO and the
World Bank, International Consultant
February 20, 2016
Oil is an important international commodity. Its
supply and demand is also internationally manipulated. The industrial countries
have the largest demand for this commodity, not only for use as fuel, but also
as a mother commodity for the manufacture of hundreds of other essential items
and accessories. Actually, less than 20% of oil imported is used for transport
and energy generation; the remainder is being used for the production of a
variety of products, from ladies perfume to auto bodies, musical instruments,
house and health furniture, fertilizers, and much more. That is why the
industrial countries are in such a high competition to acquire concession for
its production and pricing.
Oil is also a political commodity. Its supply and
demand can easily be manipulated to set its international pricing. Being a
major source of energy and of high demand worldwide, oil can also easily damage
economies of nations that depend solely on oil for their annual budgetary
needs.Further, small oil producers have no role in deciding the price of oil
they pour into the market. Even OPEC, the Organization of Oil Producing
Countries, headquartered in Geneva, supposedly set up to regulate the
production and the price of oil, is limited in its power as to how much oil is
to be marketed and at what price.
The conclusion is that while the supply and demand
levels have a major impact on the oil market price, likewise, the world
political environment is also a factor in setting oil production levels and its
pricing. Oil is a major player in the ongoing cold war between the great powers
of the world, Such as the current situation between the United States and its
allies on one hand, and Russia, China, and their allies on the other.
Further, Petrodollar plays a role in the East/West
conflict, the USA wanting continued use of the dollar as the currency in all
world oil transactions. Thus, USA has signed special agreements with other
major oil producing countries to keep using the dollar in exchange for the
United States’ commitment to protect such countries from outside aggression.
Oil politics is in action in the existing
conflicts in Yemen, and to some extent in Syria, between the Russians and the
United States, as they have divergent viewpoints. The recent decline of oil
prices is directly attributed to differences of opinion between Saudi Arabia
and Iran regarding the ongoing conflict in Yemen. The Saudis, being a major
world oil producer, have inundated the market with oil, with the results of
bringing its global price down, targeting mainly the Iranian and the Russian
economies. The United States has also decreased its demand for foreign oil,
which has kept the supply of oil at an all time high, forcing oil prices down.
The industrial countries are also working hard on
decreasing their dependence on oil. They are expanding their research at
developing energy sources other than that from oil, such as the use of Solar,
Wind, Ocean, energies, including what comes from the nuclear fusion.
These international efforts to decrease the need
for oil will eventually increases oil supply levels, and would eventually drive
prices down. With such price fluctuations, setting national budgets solely on
oil revenues becomes problematic and unwise.
Here, I would like to summarize the risks involved
in depending solely on oil for annual national budgets, and strongly suggest
that we must look at other sources where we can have control over sources of
our revenues. To repeat:
1.
The
volatile nature of the oil market is such that, making price predictions
difficult, and revenues uncertain.
2.
We
have no control over Oil world markets and its pricing mechanism.
3.
Its
use as a political tool, both by the large oil producers, and also by the great
political powers of the world, makes the oil sector vulnerable.
4.
Future
global use of oil as the main source of energy is in doubt. Researchers around
the world are busy at finding alternatives to oil, predicting lower prices.
5.
Then
again, oil reserves are finite and cannot continue forever. Every well has the
possibility to eventually dry up, some sooner and some later.
These reasons must be convincing enough to compel
us to diversify the sources of our annual revenue.
Alternatives
Sources of Revenue?
Having said this, I am not advocating shunning
entirely the use of our major source of funds from the sale of oil. Monies
received from the sale of oil should be put in a special fund, to be possibly
named Kurdistan Development Fund, to
be used mainly for addressing the sector that brings us the most revenues and
creates work for our citizens. Then, development of our human resources is of
utmost importance, followed by the rehabilitation of our basic infra-structure,
especially the supply of electricity and water, construction of major roads,
building housing settlements, schools, educational and training facilities,
fully equipped hospitals, construction of small industrial outlets, and
developing modern tourist facilities, etc.
However, the most important sector guaranteeing a
stable revenue is the agricultural sector. We need to utilize our God-given
natural resources of fertile lands, water, and a fairly favorable climate, to
ensure food security for our nation. The agricultural sector must receive the
lion’s share of the petrodollar to become viable again.
Here some may comment: “Here we go again,” but
yes, I am an agricultural activist, and firmly believe that rejuvenating our
agricultural sector will have a great impact on increasing our national wealth,
putting our young generation to work, and insure our food security.
Perhaps the recent budgetary crunch was a wakeup
call for all. First, for the authorities to realize that we urgently need a
revival of the agricultural sector. It
is our economic priority number one. It is quite risky to rely on the
import of our daily food from abroad. As the world population is on the rise,
currently standing at 7.4 billion, a day will come when no matter how much
money we may have, the food market would be too tight to provide us with our
food requirements. Is it not a shame to bring carrots from Australia and USA,
vegetables and fruits from our neighbors, poultry, beef, and fish from South
America, and dairy products from a country that has not even one free flowing
river. Why are we not utilizing our God-given fertile land and water, and a
favorable climate that allow for the production of just about every food and
feed items that we need. It is not only
that we must insure our daily food, but most importantly is that the sector
creates work, and our young generation
